Table of Contents

Plenary Lectures

Recent Advancements in Risk Analysis and Management
Terje Aven


Managing Uncertain Ground Truth Using Bayesian Machine Learning
Kok-Kwang Phoon and Jianye Ching


Probability Density Evolution - a Unified Perspective for Engineering Reliability Analysis of Structures and Lifeline Networks
Jie Li


An Introduction To Sliced-Normal Distributions
Luis Crespo


Prediction And Decision Making From Bad Data
Scott Ferson


M01 - Accident and Incident Modeling

A Preliminary Analysis of Accident Data Caused by Clandestine Takes in Pemex Pipelines
Vladimir Avalos-Bravo, Jaime Santos-Reyes and Blanca Barragán-Tognola


A Structured STPA Safety and Security Co-analysis Framework for Autonomous Ships
Jon Arne Glomsrud and Jing Xie


An Interactive Machine-learning Method to Obtain Safety Information from Free Text
Peter Hughes, Coen van Gulijk and Rawia El Rashidy


Analysis of Factors Influencing Railway Disruption Length Based on FL-BiLSTM and MIC
M. L. Fan, W. Zheng and H. Wang


Effectiveness of Secondary Heat Removal during Drain Down Operation in Mode 5 for Risk Reduction in Low Power Shutdown Level 1 PRA
JaeGab Kim, MyungRo Kim and HanSul Lee


Evaluation of the Probability of Aerodrome Traffic Incident Transformation into Accident
Michał Kozłowski, Anna Kwasiborska, Paulina Rutkowska, Jacek Skorupski and Anna Stelmach


High-Pressure Methane Jet: Analysis of the Jet-Obstacle Interaction
Cristian Colombini and Valentina Busini


Investigation Methods for Fish-escape Events in Norwegian Aquaculture
Eivind H. Okstad and Ranveig Kviseth Tinmannsvik


Probabilistic Model of Building Evacuation during a Flood
Marius Héry, Abla M. Edjossan-Sossou, Olivier Deck and Rasool Mehdizadeh


Reactivity to Crisis Situations in the Transport Sector
Jan Mrazek, Martin Hromada and Lucia Duricova


The Toll of Incidents, Accidents and Disasters on the Average Life Expectancy in Good Health
Bushinskaya A.V. and Timashev S.A.


Uncertainty Analysis of the Effectiveness of the SAMG Strategy in Typical PWRs
Sooyong Park, Jaewhan Kim and Jinkyun Park


Use of “Heinrich” factor in risk assessments of ship allision in bridge design
Inger Lise Johansen, Tore Askeland and Cato Dørum


M02 - Economic Analysis in Risk Management

A Game Theoretic Model for Understanding and Modelling Cybersecurity for Telecommunications Operators
Ian Oliver, Sakshyam Panda and Sotiris Moschoyiannis


DSS for Ensuring the Coexistence of Technical Facility with its Vicinity During the Type Selection and Sitting
Dana Prochazkova, Jan Prochazka, Josef Riha, Vaclav Beran and Zdenko Prochazka


Problems of Assessment of Economic Damage Caused by Power Supply Interruption on Example of Gas Industry Objects
V. Lesnykh and T. Timofeeva


M03 - Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Management

An Introduction to Protocol Driven Resilience
Domenico C. Amodeo and Royce A. Francis


Assessing Reliability Reputation of Products based on Online Customer Reviews
Zhiguo Zeng and Enrico Zio


Assessment of Disruption Risk Based on The Knowledge Maturity Concept
Bukowski Lech


Effective Stakeholder Involvement Requires a Common Understanding of the Risk Concept
Lisbet Fjæran and Terje Aven


M04 - Human Factors and Human Reliability

A Framework of HRA for Computer-Based Control Room
Yochan Kim and Jinkyun Park


A Human Reliability Analysis Method for Level-2 Multi-Unit PSA: Challenges and Prospective Approach
Awwal M. Arigi and Jonghyun Kim


Alignment of the Petro-HRA method with the risk perspectives in the Norwegian oil and gas industry
Surbhi Bansal, Jon Tømmerås Selvik and Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen


An Analysis of Recent Operational Events Involving Errors of Commission
Luca Podofillini and Vinh N. Dang


Augmented Reality-extended Humans: Towards a Taxonomy of Failures – Focus on Visual Technologies
Soheila Sheikh Bahaei and Barbara Gallina


Bayesian Aggregation Methods of Expert Judgement to Incorporate Human Error Probabilities for Offshore Decommissioning Risk Assessment
M.L. Fam, X.H. He, L.S. Ong, D. Konovessis and H.K. Tan


Citizens' Positive Safety Perceptions in Public Spaces
Ilona Suojanen, P. Saskia Bayerl and Gabriele Jacobs


Crew Decision-making in Situations with Degraded Information
Espen Nystad, Magnhild Kaarstad and Robert McDonald


Crew Performance Variability in Simulator Data for Human Reliability Analysis: Investigation of Modelling Options
S. F. Greco, L. Podofillini and V. N. Dang


Expert Elicitation for Estimating PSF Effects on HEPs in Computer-Based Control Rooms
Yochan Kim


Exploring road tunnel drivers' behavior: The case of Greece
Maria-Olympia Zeeri, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Panagiotis Ntzeremes


Human Factor Challenges and Possible Solutions for the Operation of Highly Autonomous Ships
Tiantian Zhu, Stein Haugen and Yiliu Liu


Human Machine Interface for Supporting Sensemaking in Critical Situation; A Literal Review
Rossella E. Bisio, Andreas Bye and Lars Hurlen


Human Performance in Manufacturing Tasks: Optimization and Assessment of required Workload and Capabilities
Maria Chiara Leva, Lorenzo Comberti, Micaela Demichela and Alberto Caimo


Human Reliability Analysis in the Aircraft Jacking Procedure
Alaide Bayma and Marcelo Ramos Martins


Human-Related Risks in the Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) of Hollow Railway Axles: Implications for the Education and Training of the NDT Personnel
Marija Bertovic


Impact of Degraded Process Information on Operator Trust
Magnhild Kaarstad and Espen Nystad


Improving the performance of Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) using Bayesian Network
Shokoufeh Abrishami, Nima Khakzad, Pieter van Gelder and Seyed Mahmoud Hosseini


Influence of Human Organizational Factors in Major Hydrocarbon Leaks in Norwegian Continental Shelf
Saikrishna Govindarajan and Jan Erik vinnem


Is the Human a Risk Factor or a Risk Reducer? Answers based on the Challenges in Human Reliability Assessment
Prof. Dr. habil. Oliver Straeter


Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCMs): A Case Study on Fishing Vessels
B. Navas de Maya, R. E. Kurt and O. Turan


Methods for Dependency between Human Failure Events in Human Reliability Analysis: An Overview of the State-of-the-Art
Fatmagul Ibisoglu and Katrina M Groth


Nordic Nuclear Power Plants' Emergency Response Organizations and HRA considerations for Multi-Unit Accidents
Salvatore Massaiu and Xuhong He


PET Generative Data Models for HRA Data Mining
Gueorgui Petkov


Quality Improvement in Manual Assembly by Software-based Evaluation of Human Misconduct
M. Sc. Lena Blackert, Dipl.-Logist. Christian Kern, Robert Refflinghaus and M. Sc. Tim Trostmann


Risk based Approach for Procedures’ Optimization
Micaela Demichela, Gabriele Baldissone, Chiara Leva and Salvina Murè


Role of Human Reliability Analysis in Post-Fukushima Risk-Informed Decision Making
Michael Montecalvo, Matthew Humberstone and Jing Xing


Tackling the Lack of Data for Human Error Probability with Credal Network
Caroline Morais, Silvia Tolo, Raphael Moura, Michael Beer and Edoardo Patelli


Task based Risk Assessment for Human Factors Impact on Aviation Maintenance Deviations: A Case Study on three Specific Tasks and their Operational Implications
Stephen Caffrey, Laís Veloso Lara, Christopher Murtagh, Maria Chiara Leva and Victor Hrymak


The Prolonged Effect of In-Cabin Aircraft Noise on Recognition Memory
Brett R. C. Molesworth, Marion Burgess and Annie Zhou


Vulnerability of Cyclists on the road. A Probabilistic Analysis of the Database of Traffic Injuries in Spain Focusing on type of Involved vehicle and Driver Culpability
Susana García-Herrero, Rachel Aldred, Esther Anaya-Boig and Miguel. A. Mariscal


What makes Human Factors Critical Task Reviews Flourish or Stall? Exploring Performance Variability using FRAM
Dominic Furniss, Mark Sujan, Jamie Henderson and David Embrey


M05 - Maintenance Modeling and Applications

A Delay Time Model for Stochastic Dependence
Badía F.G., Berrade M.D. and Calvo E.


A Graphical Method for Diagnosing the Effectiveness of a Maintenance Plan
Pablo Viveros, Erich Stowhas, Rodrigo Mena, Fredy Kristjanpoller, Tomás Grubessich, Christopher Nikulin and Vicente González-Prida


A Maintenance Time Estimation Method based on Maintainability Design Attributes
Xu Luo, ShiGang Zhang, ZheXue Ge and Lei Li


A Method for Quantitative Analysis of Accessibility based on Path Planning
Shunfeng Mei, Dong Zhou, QiDi Zhou and ZiYue Guo


A Modeling Framework for Efficacy Assessment and Preventive Maintenance of Torrential Protection Works
Nour Chahrour, Sleiman Hariri, Jean-Marc Tacnet and Christophe Bérenguer


A Petri Net Methodology for Modelling the Maintenance of Railway Route Sections
Jack Litherland and John Andrews


A Principal-agent Approach for Designing Maintenance Service Contracts
João Mateus Marques de Santana, Rafael Luiz Velôzo Santiago, Isis Didier Lins, Márcio das Chagas Moura and Enrique López Droguett


A systematic replacement strategy in the context of a strongly censored lifetime. Application to road markings
Maxime Redondin, Laurent Bouillaut, Dimitri Daucher and Nadége Faul


An Extension of the Rolling Horizon Approach Incorporating the Opportunistic Maintenance for Multi-component Systems
Tianyi Wu, Yu Zhao and Xiaobing Ma


An Unsupervised Method for the Reconstruction of Maintenance Intervention Times
Luca Pinciroli, Piero Baraldi, Ahmed Shokry and Enrico Zio


Availability and Performance Measures for Planning Maintenance Actions on Waterways Networks
Francesca Marsili, JÖrg BÖdefeld, Hans Daduna and Pietro Croce


Combined Maintenance Scheduling and Production Optimization
Adriaen Verheyleweghen, Himanshu Srivastav, Anne Barros and Johannes Jäschke


Comparison of Two Maintenance Models to Quantify Unavailability of Systems with Components with Dormant Failures
Radim Briš and Nuong Thi Thuy Tran


Comprehensive Clustering Approach for Managing Maintenance in Large Fleet of Assets
J. Izquierdo, A. Crespo, J. Uribetxebarria and A. Erguido


Condition-based Maintenance Model Considering Positive and Negative Maintenance Effects for Dependent Competing Failure Processes
Qiannan Liu, Lin Ma, Naichao Wang and Qihang Jiang


Corrosion Environment on Steel Bridges Using Inverse Distance Weighting Method
Zabihullah Rasoli, Kazutoshi Nagata and Takeshi Kitahara


Degradation Modeling and Condition-Based Maintenance Decision-Making for Dynamic System in S-plane
T.M.H. La, K.T. Huynh, A. Grall and Y. Langeron


Design of Weekly Maintenance Schedule for a Fleet of Trains for the Achievement of Organizational Requirements
Tomás Grubessich, Raúl Stegmaier, Pablo Viveros and Fredy Kristjanpoller


Dynamic Adaption of Maintenance Packages within the Product Use Phase using Machine Learning Methods Regarding Operating Data
Fabian Reinecke, Sebastian Sochacki and Stefan Bracke


Dynamic Optimization of Maintenance Policies for Multistate System
Benoîte de Saporta, François Dufour and Huilong Zhang


Effect of the Obsolescence Management in RAMS of Safety-related Equipment
Sebastián Martorell, Isabel Marton, Ana Sánchez and Sofia Carlos


Impact of Road Infrastructure Characteristics on Road Markings
Ali Tidjani, Maxime Redondin, Laurent Bouillaut and Dimitri Daucher


Integrated Decision Rules for Adaptive Condition based Maintenance and Multivariate Control Charts
Latrous Mohamed Othman, Amélie Ponchet-Durupt, Nassim Boudaoud, Magali Bosch-Mauchand and Zohra Cherfi-Boulanger


Linking Building Information Modeling and Structural Health Monitoring for Reliable Railway Infrastructure
Robert Hartung, Lennart Sengerb and Katharina Klemt-Albert


Monte Carlo Simulation of a Reliability Optimized Maintenance Concept for Systems with Limited Accessibility
Ashish Keshkamat, Jan Hauschild and Hendrik Meyer


Nonperiodic Maintenance Activities Scheduling for Pumps in Nuclear Power Plant Subsystem
Mengyu Du and Yan-Fu Li


Offshore Wind Farms Maintenance Strategy using the Analytic Network Process
J. Sobral and C. Guedes Soares


On Approximation of Superposition of Renewal Process
Liu Xingheng, Dijoux Yann and Vatn Jørn


open O&M: Robust O&M Open Access Tool for Improving Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines
Athanasios Kolios, Julia Walgern, Sofia Koukoura, Ravi Pandit and Juan Chiachio-Ruano


Optimal Predictive Maintenance Policy for Multi-component Systems
Tiffany Cherchi, Camille Baysse, Benoîte de Saporta and François Dufour


Optimizing Proof test Policy for Redundant Safety-related Systems
Florent Brissaud, Céline Vinuesa and Cyrille Folleau


Prediction of Track Geometry Degradation by Artificial Neural Networks
Mohammad Haddadzade, Hamid Khajehei, Alireza Ahmadi, Iman Soleimanmeigouni and Arne Nissen


Prognostics and Maintenance Optimization in Bridge Management
Renny Arismendi, Anne Barros, Jørn Vatn and Antoine Grall


Research of Condition-Based Maintenance Strategy Based on Simulation
Yanlei Wang, Dongyi Wang, Xiaojun Zhang and Hongwei Cheng


Research on Maintenance Assessment Method & System for Complex Product based Digital Mock-Up
Yang Y. B., Chen G. and Liao H. Q.


Simulation and Analysis of Simple, Repairable Systems with a Confidence Interval
Frank Müller and Bernd Bertsche


Towards a Maintenance Requirements Analysis for Maximizing Production
Frits van Rooij and Philip Scarf


Virtual Reality Application for Maintainability Design: A Case Study of the Practical Project
Ziyue Guo, Dong Zhou and Aimin Hao


Visual Occlusion Obstacle Detection Model based on Finite Element Analysis in Virtual Environment
Qidi Zhou, Dong Zhou, Shunfeng Mei and Aimin Hao


M06 - Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety

A Bayesian Estimation Approach for the Age- and State-Dependent Transformed Wiener Degradation Process
Massimiliano Giorgio, Fabio Postiglione and Gianpaolo Pulcini


A Comprehensive Allocation Model of Reliability and Maintainability Index
Jin Yan, Chuan Lv, Jiayu Chen and Chunhui Guo


A New Approach for Parametrizing Multidimensional Lifetime Models
Alexander Kremer and Bernd Bertsche


A New Domain-independent Method for Improving Reliability and Reducing Risk based on Algebraic Inequalities
Michael Todinov


A Perturbed Inverse Gaussian Process Model with Time Varying Variance-To-Mean Ratio
Songhua Hao, Jun Yang and Christophe Berenguer


A Probabilistic Model to Maximize Joint Power Detection of a Group of Trained Detectors
Pierre Beauseroy and Edith Grall-Maës


A Review of Methods for Discretizing Continuous-Time Accident Sequences
Austin D. Lewis and Katrina M. Groth


A Stackelberg Game theory approach to Optimize Warranty Length, Upgrade level and Sale Price for Risk-averse Buyers of Second-hand Products
E. Baghdadi and M. Shafiee


Active Learning Kriging-Mixed Optimization Method for Hybrid Time-variant Reliability Analysis with Random and Interval Variables
Feng Jiazhen, Wang Kaiwei, Xie He, Wang Xuekong, Wang Weihan, Wu Dong and Zhou Yanghongsheng


Advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment through Continuous Fault Trees using R-Functions
Andrei Gribok and Ted Wood


An Alternative Detection of Safety and Reliability Weakness for Safety-critical Electronic Railway Signaling Systems
Emanuele Pascale, Laurent Bouillaut, Cristian Maiorano, Raffaele Sista, Paolo Sannino and Pietro Marmo


Analysis and verification methods of the UAS brake system based on STAMP/STAP
Cui Lijie, Cong Jiping, Zhang Jiakui, Ren Bo and Chen Siyan


Analysis of Accelerated Reliability Testing Data of Electronic Component in Combat Vehicles
Xuan Phong CU and Zdenek Vintr


Application of Logic Differential Calculus and Binary Decision Diagrams in Detection of Minimal Cut Vectors
Miroslav Kvassay, Patrik Rusnak, Elena Zaitseva and Jozef Kostolny


Confidence Interval of Reliability at Use Condition Considering the Comprehensive Statistical Uncertainty and Distribution of Constant Stress and Life-Stress Model
Peter Zeiler and Aleksandar Eric


Determination of Safety Levels of Electronic Devices Exposed to Impact of Strong Electromagnetic Pulses
Adam Rosiński, Jacek Paś, Marek Szulim and Jarosław Łukasiak


Efficient Risk Based Optimization of Large System Models using a Reduced Petri Net Methodology
Susannah Naybour, John Andrews and Manuel Chiachio-Ruano


Empirical Analysis of Transportation Systems Availability using the Semi-Markov Process
Anna Borucka


Environmental Contours for Mixtures of Distributions
Arne Bang Huseby, Erik Vanem and Maria Hjelset Barbosa


Estimation from Small Sample Staircase Experiments
Gerhard Neubauer


Estimation of Optimal Safety Parameters for a Communication Channel with Required SIL 3 at runtime
Larissa Gaus, Michael Schwarz and Josef Börcsök


Failure Rate Ordering with an Application to Parallel Systems
Idir Arab, Milto Hadjikyriakou and Paulo Eduardo Oliveira


Fault Tolerant Control Using Sliding Mode Observers
Alexey Zhirabok, Alexander Zuev and Alexey Shumsky


FFORT: A Benchmark Suite for Fault Tree Analysis
Enno Ruijters, Carlos E. Budde, Muhammad Chenariyan Nakhaee, Mariëlle Stoelinga, Doina Bucur, Djoerd Hiemstra and Stefano Schivo


Finite Degradation Analysis of Multiple Safety Instrumented Systems
Liu Yang, Antoine Rauzy and Mary Ann Lundteigen


Generalizing Banks’ Smoothed Bootstrap Method for Right-Censored Data
Asamh S.M. Al Luhayb, Tahani Coolen-Maturi and Frank P.A. Coolen


Handling Uncertainty in the Finite Element Method Using Interval Constraint Solving Techniques
Leobardo Valera, Martine Ceberio, Luis Bravo, Angel Garcia and Jesus Padilla


Induction of Fault Trees through Bayesian Networks
Alexis Linard, Marcos L. P. Bueno, Doina Bucur and Marielle Stoelinga


Integration Method of Multi-Source Accelerated Degradation Testing Data Considering Epistemic Uncertainties and Stress Dependency
Wen-Bin Chen, Xiao-Yang Li, Rui Kang and Yu-Qing Hu


Is it Safe to use MTTF/(MTTF + MTTR) for the Availability?
Christian Tanguy, Marc Buret and Nicolae Brinzei


Modeling of Degradation of Electric Connectors Under Varying Humidity Conditions
Petteri Ojala, Jari Räm, Ilpo Nieminen and Juha Miettinen


New Method for Reliability Demonstration Test
René Valenzuela, Pierre Dersin and Carole Saint-Ellier


On the Performance of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method for Gamma Process
Quentin Chatenet, Mitra Fouladirad, Emmanuel Remy, Martin Gagnon, Laurent Tôn-Thât and Antoine Tahan


OR03: A New Bayesian Estimator of Failure Rates to Deal with Heterogeneous Data from the OREDA Database
Nicolas Clavé, Sophie Mercier, Laurent Bordes and Pierre-Joseph Cacheux


Packet Delay Analysis of Safe Cooperating Cyber-Physical Systems (SafeCOP)
Jing Xie and Min Xie


Pitfalls Associated with Bayesian Model Averaging for Risk Assessments
Mauricio Monsalve, Roberto Benavente and Alejandro Urrutia


Reliability Acceptance Sampling Plan for Weighted Exponential Distribution based on Constant Stress Accelerated Data
M.Kumar and P.C. Ramyamol


Reliability Estimation with Multi-Fidelity Simulation Methods
Carsten Proppe


Reliability Evaluation by Accelerated Testing with Zero Failure Data
Bo Wang, Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing and Zhaoli Song


Reparameterized Weibull distribution: A Bayes study using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Tien Thanh Thach and Radim Briš


Review of Mathematical Inconsistencies in the Practices to Assess SIL of SIS − Toward a Novel Approach for Risk Reduction
Laurent Cauffriez


Risk Analysis and Trade-off Design Method Based on Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory Oriented for Multi-Source Information System
Chu Jiayun, Zhao Tingdi and Jiao Jian


Saturation Models to Assess Risk in Product Fleets During the Use Phase
Stefan Bracke and Sebastian Sochacki


Simulation and Parameter Estimation for Virtual Age Models with Time-Dependent Covariates: Methodology and Performance Evaluation
Léa Brenière, Laurent Doyen and Christophe Bérenguer


Stochastic Modeling of Maintenance: a Comparative Study of the Renewal and Markov Decision Processes
Noldainerick Manzana, Bin Liu and Mahesh D. Pandey


Time-variant Reliability Analysis Based on the Approximate Relationship Between the Outcrossing Rate and Failure Rate
Hua-Ming Qian, Hong-Zhong Huang, Peng Huang and Tudi Huang


Toxicity Assessment for Safe-by-design Nanomaterials using Advanced Data Analytics
C. Spyropoulos, C. Psevdos and E.C. Marcoulaki


Water Distribution System Reliability Assessment Based on Nonparametric Approach
Kamila Hasilová and David Vališ


M07 - Prognostics and System Health Management

A Comparison of Bio-Inspired Meta-Heuristic Algorithms for Aircraft Actuator Prognostics
Matteo D. L. Dalla Vedova, Pier Carlo Berri and Stefano Re


A Deep Adversarial Approach Based on Multisensor Fusion for Remaining Useful Life Prognostics
David Verstraete, Enrique Droguett and Mohammad Modarres


A Degrading Element of Safety-instrumented Systems with Combined Maintenance Strategy
Aibo Zhang, Yiliu Liu, Anne Barros and Elias Kassa


A Lumped Parameter High Fidelity EMA Model for Model-Based Prognostics
Pier Carlo Berri, Matteo D.L. Dalla Vedova and Paolo Maggiore


A Survey on Underground Pipelines and Railway Infrastructure at Cross-Sections
A.H.S Garmabaki, Uday Kumar, Adithya Thaduri, Annelie Hedström, Jan Laue, Stefan Marklund, Johan Odelius, Matti Rantatalo, Mattias Asplund, Tarun Bansal and Stefan Indahl


An Intelligent Inference Method on Electronic Products' Failure Mechanism Considering Uncertain Mission Profiles
Yujia Wang, Ying Chen and Rui Kang


Analysis of Natural Airfield Pavement Load-bearing Capacity in the Aspect of Air Operation Safety
Mariusz Wesołowski, Paweł Pietruszewski and Paweł Iwanwoski


Bayesian Network Design for Fault Diagnostics of Railway Switches
Thorsten Neumann and Daniela Narezo Guzmán


Comparative Study of Parameterizations for Damage Localization with Finite Element Model Updating
Marlene Bruns, Benedikt Hofmeister, Tanja Grießmann and Raimund Rolfes


Comparison of Data-driven Prognostics Models: A Process Perspective
Rui Li, Wim J.C. Verhagen and Richard Curran


Comparison of Inductive Learning and Neural Networks in Condition Monitoring Systems of Complex Machines
Marcin Hinz, Dominik Brueggemann and Stefan Bracke


Convolutional Neural Network for Remaining useful Life Prediction based on Vibration Signal
Caio Bezerra Souto Maior, Monalisa Cristina Moura dos Santos, João Mateus Marques de Santana, Ana Cláudia Souza Vidal de Negreiros, Márcio das Chagas Moura, Isis Didier Lins and Enrique López Droguett


Enhancing Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction by an Advanced Ensemble Method Adapted to the Specific Characteristics of Prognostics and Health Management
Marc Hoenig, Simon Hagmeyer and Peter Zeiler


Estimating IOHMM Parameters to Compute Remaining Useful Life of System
Kamrul Islam Shahin, Christophe Simon and Philippe Weber


Estimation of the Value of Prognostic Information for Condition-based and Predictive Maintenance
William Fauriat and Enrico Zio


Experimental Study of Rolling Element Bearing Failure Pattern Based on Vibration Growth Process
Morteza Hosseini Yazdi, Mehdi Behzad, Behzad Ghodrati and Amir Taghizadeh Vahed


Fault Prognostics in Presence of Event-Based Measurements
Mingjing Xu, Piero Baraldi, Sameer Al-Dahidi and Enrico Zio


First Step towards the Development of a Prognosis Health Management (PHM) System for Li-ion batteries: An FMMEA based approach
Akash Basia, Zineb Simeu-Abazi, Eric Gascard and Peggy Zwolinski


Geocell Reinforcement in Natural Airfield Pavement Structure in the Aspect of the Safety of Conducted Flight Operations
Mariusz Wesołowski, Danuta Kowalska and Agata Kowalewska


Graph Convolutional Networks for Health State Diagnostics
Iván González, José Cáceres, Enrique López Droguett and Mónica López-Campos


High Frequency Energy Disaggregation Sampling and Analysis towards Predictive Maintenance Applications
S. Kotsilitis, E. C. Marcoulaki and E. Kalligeros


Influence of the Load Bearing Capacity a Concrete Airfield Pavement Constructions on the Safety of Air Operations
Mariusz Wesołowski, Krzysztof Blacha and Aleksandra Rumak


MRL-based Importance Measures
Phuc Do Christophe Berenguer and Emanuele Borgonovo


Physics Based Deep Learning Model for Crack Propagation Prognostics
Philip Kobrich, Gabriel San Martin, Enrique Lopez Droguett, Alejandro Ortiz Bernardin and Yonas Zewdu Ayele


Predictive Maintenance of Mining Machinery Using Machine Learning Approaches
Amir Taghizadeh Vahed, Behzad Ghodrati, Nuray Demirel and Morteza Hosseini Yazdi


Recurrent Capsule Networks for Remaining Useful Life Prognostics
Cristián Schaad Concha, Andrés Ruiz-Tagle Palazuelos, Enrique López Droguett and José Miguel Cardemil


Reliability and Degradation Analysis of Smart material Actuators
Philipp Heß and Stefan Bracke


Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction based on Adaptive Failure Thresholds
Amelie Bender, Lennart Schinke and Walter Sextro


Robust Optimal Sensor Placement for Response Reconstruction Using Output-Only Vibration Measurements
Tulay Ercan, Omid Sedehi, Costas Papadimitriou and Lambros S. Katafygiotis


Software Failure Prognostics on the Basis of Testing Results: Application of Imprecise Test Coverage Models
Victor G. Krymsky


State Modelling and Prognostics of Safety Valves used in the Oil and Gas Industry
Ewa Laskowska and Jørn Vatn


The Probabilistic Method for Predicting the Reliability of Aircraft's Commutator Devices
Mariusz Zieja, Mariusz Ważny, Michał Jasztal, Sławomir Stępień and Mariusz Michalski


M08 - Resilience Engineering

A Probabilistic Approach for Modeling the Resilience of Interdependent Power and Water Infrastructure Networks
Jin-Zhu Yu and Hiba Baroud


A Quantitative Method to Identify Strategies for Enhancing the Resilience of Water Networks
Beatrice Cassottana, Nazli Yonca Aydin and Loon Ching Tang


A Systematic Tabular Approach for Risk and Resilience Assessment and Improvement in the Telecommunication Industry
Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek, Katja Faist, Natalie Miller, Jörg Finger, Ivo Häring, Marco Carli, Federica Battisti, Rodoula Makri, Giuseppe Celozzi, Giuseppe Amato, Maria Belesioti and Evangelos Sfakianakis


An Ontology of Risk Associated Concepts in the Context of Resilience
Ralf Mock, Bernhard Hulin and Linda Alexey Leksin


Application of UAVs for Bridge Inspection and Resilience Assessment
Yonas Zewdu Ayele and Enrique Lopez Droguett


Data Availability Assessment for the Usability of Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities in the Czech Republic
Pavel Kincl and Alena Oulehlová


Engaging Stakeholders for Fostering Infrastructure and Community Resilience
Stefania D'Onofrio and Giovanni Ranza


Linking Science to Practice: A Pragmatic approach for the Assessment of Measures to Improve the Resilience of Transportation Infrastructure Systems
Markus Deublein, Franziska Roth, Christian Willi, Kalliopi Anastassiadou and Ulrich Bergerhausen


Multidimensional Resilience Decision-Making On A Multistage High-Speed Axial Compressor
Julian Salomon, Jasper Behrensdorf, Matteo Broggi, Stefan Weber and Michael Beer


Operational Reliability in Complex Temporary Organizations
D.C. Zuiderwijk and F.K. Boersma


Regulation and resilience at the macro-level healthcare system – a literature review
Sina Furnes Øyri and Siri Wiig


Resilience Assessment Of Heterogeneous Complex Transport Networks – A General Framework And A Case Study
Bukowski Lech and Sobczak Paweł


Resilience Assessment of the Traffic Network Luxembourg-Metz. The Power of Information
Maria Nogal and Daniel Honfi


Safety when Implementing Digital Technology and Infrastructure
T.M. Stene


System Identification in Resilience Management of Historical Bridges
Zehra Irem Turksezer, Maria Pina Limongelli and Michael Havbro Faber


Towards a Syllabus for Resilient Health Care
Mark Sujan, Dominic Furniss, Janet Anderson, Jeffrey Braithwaite and Erik Hollnagel


M09 - Risk Assessment

A Fault Tree Method to Calculate the Supporting System Initiating Event Frequency
Min-Hua Lee and Chung-Kung Lo


A Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) for Accident Risk in the Energy Sector triggered by Natural Events
Matteo Spada and Peter Burgherr


A Model of Cascading Failures in a Distributed Industrial Environment
Jacek Malinowski


A Risk Assessment Methodology for National Gas Systems. Application Example
Nicola Zaccarelli, Nuria Rodríguez-Gómez, María Aranzazu Aznárez-Salvatierra and Ricardo Bolado-Lavín


A Systems Approach to Identify Hidden Assumptions in the Background Knowledge
Henrik Langdalen, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen and Håkon Bjorheim Abrahamsen


An Adaptive Sequential Sampling Method for Reliability Analysis and Its Application in Aircraft Cabin Door Lock Mechanism
Song Kunling, Zhang Yugang, Yu Xinshui and Song Bifeng


An Extended Belief Rule-based Method for Risk Assessment of Hazardous Material Transport
Siqi Qiu, Liya Wang and Henry X. G. Ming


An Integrated Methodology for Risk Assessment of Mining Projects at Different Spatial Scales
Scammacca Ottone, Mehdizadeh Rasool and Gunzburger Yann


Analysis of Building Damage in Uki City due to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake
Kazuaki Torisawa, Kei Horie, Masashi Matsuoka, Munenari Inoguchi and Fumio Yamazaki


Application of Bayesian Model for Third Party Damage Assessment of Cross-Country Oil Pipeline under Uncertainty
Shamsudeen Hassan, Jin Wang, Musa Bashir and Christos Kontovas


Application of Drone for Resource Deployment during Crisis Management: A Preliminary Hazard Analysis
Behrooz Ashrafi and Abbas Barabadi


Bayesian Network Based Analysis of Cyber Security Impact on Safety
Daniel Lichte and Kai-Dietrich Wolf


Bounded Dynamic Analysis of Large Scale PSA with Cold Spares and Repairs
Ola Bäckström and Pavel Krcal


Challenges for Risk on Future Autonomous Offshore Installations
Jan Erik Vinnem and Silje F. Budde


Comparative Risk Assessment of Accidents in the Energy Sector within Different Long-Term Scenarios and Marginal Electricity Supply Mixes
Peter Burgherr, Matteo Spada, Anna Kalinina, Laurent Vandepaer, Peter Lustenberger and Wansub Kim


Confirmatory Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis to Support Success Criteria in NRC’s PRA Models
Suzanne Dennis and Shawn Campbell


Development of Preliminary Event Trees for Loss of Coolant Accident and Loss of Load Event in Autonomous Micro Modular Reactor
Eunseo So and Man Cheol Kim


Evaluating Approaches Supporting Safety Argumentation for Inclusion in a Safety Assessment Framework for Efficient Transport
André Alexandersen Hauge, Terje Sivertsen and Bjørn Axel Gran


Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: A Risk-Based Approach for ranking Infrastructure Assets for Maintenance Interventions
François Nyobeu and Andreas Panenka


How Earthquake Risk Depends on the Closeness to a Fault: Symmetry-Based Geometric Analysis
Aaron Velasco, Solymar Ayala Cortez, Olga Kosheleva and Vladik Kreinovich


How Final Element Proof Test Can Effect Your SIF
Loren Stewart


ICVSS: A New Methodology for Scoring Industrial Control Systems Vulnerabilities
Riad Chemali, Blaise Conrard and Mireille Bayart


Identifying Critical Components in Power Distribution Networks using Graph Theoretical Measures
Mauricio Monsalve and Juan Carlos de la Llera


Introduction to DICE (Dynamic Integrated Consequence Evaluation) Toolbox for Checking Coverability of Operational Procedures in NPPs
Sejin Baek, Gyunyoung Heo, Taewan Kim and Jonghyun Kim


Investigating the Decision-Making Approach to Risk Assessment in Police Custody
Melanie-Jane Stoneman, Lisa Jackson, Sarah Dunnett and Louise Cooke


Method of 3-dimensional Decision Space in the Risk Assessment Process in Road Transport
Agnieszka A. Tubis


Multiple Decision-makers in Multidimensional Risk Analysis: A Structured Decision-making Process
Thalles V Garcez, Danielle C Morais, Tomasz Wachowicz and Adiel T de Almeida


National Risk Assessments in the EU: Reflections and Recommendations
Galbusera Luca, Theocharidou Marianthi, Casajus-Valles Ainara, Marin-Ferrer Montserrat, Poljanšek Karmen and Giannopoulos Georgios


New Frequencies Assessment method for Safety Analysis
Céline Vinuesa, Cyrille Folleau, Frédéric Doux and Stéphane Collas


Power System Reliability Importance Measures
Marko Čepin, Maksim Demin, Maksim Danilov, Irina Romanenko and Vyacheslav Afanasyev


Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Ageing Thermal Power Plants
Markova Jana, Sykora Miroslav, Holicky Milan and Stastna Klara


Problem of Creation of Integrated Index of Assessment of Production Safety Condition at Hazardous Production Facilities
M. Lukyanchikov, A. Bochkov and V. Lesnykh


Strategies for the Assessment of Risk induced by Seismic Liquefaction on Road Networks
D’Apuzzo Mauro, Esposito Andrea, Evangelisti Azzurra, Spacagna Rose-Line, Luca Paolella and Modoni Giuseppe


Technology Assisted Risk Assessment in Homecare
Luke Power, Sarah Dunnett and Lisa Jackson


The Present and Future of Risk Assessment of MASS: A Literature Review
Åsa Snilstveit Hoem


The Risk Effectiveness of Installing RCP Shutdown Seal for Loss of CCW Event
Hao-Ti Hsu, Ching-Han Chen, Ching-Tien Huang and Chung-Kung Lo


Use of OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Database Projects Operating Experience for Probabilistic Safety Assessment
Marina Röwekamp and Benjamin Brück


Verification and Assessment in Railway Safety
Hendrik Schäbe


Vulnerability Index Assessment of Overall Strengthened Masonry Buildings
Nacim Yousfi and Mahmoud Bensaibi


Worst Case Risk
Dejan Škanata


M10 - Risk Management

Alternatives of Carbon Dioxide Disposal in Pre-Salt Offshore Exploration
M.A. Pestana, C.H.B. Morais, C. Brandão, A. Maia, A. B. Mendes and M.R. Martins


An Advanced Method for Detecting Exceptional Vessel Encounters in Open Waters from High Resolution AIS Data
Martin Hassel, Asbjørn Lein Aalberg and Haakon Akse Nordkvist


Blackout Ahead: Methodological Concerns in Studies of Critical Infrastructure Protection
Christine Große, Pär M. Olausson and Susanne Wallman-Lundåsen


Can Fire Prevention Officers Judge Structural and Technical Fire Protection Measures?
Carsten Janiec and Eugen Nachtigall


Combining Risk Management and Foresight Management to foresee challenges in Future Migration
Aud Solveig Nilsen and Andrè Karlsen


Complex Technical Facilities Risk Management Responsibilities
Dana Prochazkova and Jan Prochazka


Components Importance Ranking Considering the Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty
Jingwen Song, Zhenzhou Lu and Michael Beer


Defining Parameters of Quality in Municipal Fire and Rescue Services – A Case Study in Denmark
Andreas Ellingsgaard Baastrup and Jennifer Elyse Lynette


Design including RAMS and security for new Traffic Control Centers for the Norwegian Railway
Bjørn Axel Gran, Grete Rindahl, Sizarta Sarshar and Linda Sofie Lunde-Hanssen


Estimation of the Equipment Residual Lifetime in Major Hazard Industries by Using a Virtual Sensor
Maria Francesca Milazzo, Giuseppe Scionti and Paolo Bragatto


Hazards Generated in Air Task Domain of Tactical Aircraft Operating System
Emil Augustyn, Adam Kadziński and JPiotr Smoczyński


Multicriteria Analysis for Strategic Risk Mitigation in the Federal Police of Brazil
Felipe Scarpelli de Andrade, Carlos Eduardo Pires de Albuquerque, Marcelo Hazin de Alencar, Rodrigo José Pires Ferreira and Ana Paula Cabral Seixas Costa


Multidimensional HAZOP Analysis (MHAZOP): A Comprehensive Support to Decision-making Process in Risk Management
Thalles V Garcez and Marcelo H Alencar


Optimizing Response Plans in Multidimensional Risk Management: A Numerical Application in a Methanol Production Plant
Pablo R M Andrade and Thalles V Garcez


Real-Time Queries on Large Volumes of Safety Text
Matthew Newall and Coen van Gulijk


Risk Analysis for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Assets
Isaac Animah, Mahmood Shafiee and Augustus Addy-Lamptey


Risk Analysis for Operations and Maintenance of Wind Farm in the Arctic Region
A. Shojaei Barjouei and Abbas Barabadi


Risk Awareness Versus Risk Assessment in Manufacturing: A Field Study
Lorenzo Comberti, Gabriele Baldissone and Micaela Demichela


Risk Monitoring: A Comparison across Risk Types and Application Domains
Ola Bäckström, Xuhong He, Pavel Krcal, Johan Sörman and Wei Wang


Risks Management and Cobots. Identifying Critical Variables
Mariscal M.A., González-Pérez J., Azfar Khalid, Gutierrez-Llorente J.M. and García-Herrero S.


Towards Full Systems Integration Readiness Assessment
Mohammad Rajabalinejad


Towards Risk Informed BIM Models in Major Norwegian Transport Projects
Sizarta Sarshar, André Alexandersen Hauge and Rune Winther


Understanding the new Context of Uncertainty and Risk under the 4th Industry Revolution
González-Prida V, Zamora J, Guillén A, De La Fuente A, Viveros P, Martínez-Galán P, Candón E and Moreu P


Variability: Threat or Curse?
Ben J.M. Ale, Des N.D. Hartford and David H.Slater


M11 - Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis

A Review of Stochastic Sampling Methods for Bayesian Inference Problems
Adolphus Lye, Alice Cicirello and Edoardo Patelli


A Ship Safe Speed Identifying Method from Risk Perspectives in Arctic Waters
Chi Zhang, Di Zhang, Mingyang Zhang, Wei Cao and Wengang Mao


A Simulation-Based Model for Series-parallel Priority Queuing Systems
B. S. Cunha, R.L. V. Santiago, M. C. M. Dos Santos, M. C. Moura and I. D. Lins


An Agent-based Model to Evaluate Influences on Structural Reliability by Human and Organizational Factors
Xin Ren, Karel C. Terwel, Igor Nikolic and Pieter H.A.J.M. van Gelder


Approach for the Simulation of Anode Corrosion in Electrolysis Processes
Christoph Rosebrock, Marcin Hinz and Stefan Bracke


Bayesian Inference for Power Law Process Based on WinBUGS
Junming Hu and Yan Li


Calibration of Cascading Failure Simulation Models for Power System Risk Assessment
Blazhe Gjorgiev, Bing Li and Giovanni Sansavini


Delivery Reliability Assessment of Gas Pipeline Under Stochastic Demand Variations
Chen Qian, Wu Changchun, Bu Yaran, Zuo Lili, Huang Yanfei, Chen Jie and Chen Feng


Evaluation on the Adequacy for Operation Profile of Train Using Simulation
Jae Yoon Yoo and Jong Woon Kim


Failure Mechanism Analysis on Copper-Filled TSV Interposer Based on Transient Thermal Mechanical Stress Simulation
Yuan Chen, Peng Zhang, Wei Su, Hongzhong Huang, Ping Lai, Xiaoling Lin and Yunfei En


Monte Carlo and Dynamic Event Tree Simulation for Assessing the Potentials of Tube and Pipe Ruptures
Martina Kloos and Joerg Peschke


Probabilistic assessment on stability and serviceability of existing tunnel due to down-crossing shield tunnel
Chen Fuyong and Zhang Wengang


Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Digital Reactor Protection System in Nuclear Power Plant
Wei Zhang


Solder Layer Voids Failure Criteria of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor Modules Based on Thermal Network Model
Ye Wang and Guicui Fu


State-based Availability Analysis of hard- and Software Architectures using Monte Carlo Simulation under Consideration of Different Failure modes and Degradation Models
Johannes Heinrich, Julian-Steffen Müller, Fabian Plinke, Timo Frederik Horeis and Hendrik Decke


Subset Simulation Interpolation - A New Approach to Compute Effects of Model- Dynamics in Structural Reliability
Florian Blandfort, Christian Glock, Jörn Sass, Stefanie Schwaar and Rabea Sefrin


Towards Visibility and Audibility Algorithms for Assessing Perceived Safety and Security in Public areas based on Digital 3D City Models
Georg Vogelbacher, Jörg Finger and Ivo Häring


M12 - Structural Reliability

A New Hybrid Method for Seismic Fragility Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Buildings
Sangmok Lee, Young-Joo Lee and Do-Soo Moon


A New Structural Reliability Analysis Method with Fuzzy Random Variables Based on Maximum Entropy Model
Lingfei You, Jianguo Zhang, Hao Zhai and Qiao Li


A Novel Model to Investigate the Shock Effects on Fatigue Life
Shan Jiang and Yan-Fu Li


A Structural Reliability Analysis Method Based on Information Exchange Krill Herd Algorithm
Li-Xiang Cheng and Yan-Gang Zhao


Accurate Probabilistic Analysis on the Multiple Passages Problem of the Wiener Process
Zhenhao Zhang, Yi Zeng and Xin Liu


An Efficient Moving Least Squares Based Response Surface Method for Reliability Analysis of Structures
Sounak Kabasi and Subrata Chakraborty


Bayesian Model Updating using Method of Moments with Application to Structural Reliability Assessment
Pei-Pei Li, Yan-Gang Zhao and Zhao-Hui Lu


Comparison of Frequencies and Probabilities of Failure in Engineering Sciences
Dirk Proske


Copula-based Numerical Computation Approach for the Sensitivity of Failure Probability
Pan Wang and Haihe Li


De-nesting Optimization Method for Hybrid Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Dimension Reduction
Guofa Li, Zequan Chen, Jialong He and Chuanhai Chen


Design of Multiscale Composites Using Robust Topology Optimization of Level Sets
Jing Zheng, Zhen Luo and Chao Jiang


Development of a Method to Assess the Susceptibility of Tailings Dams' Failure due to Overtopping
Sauer Lorenzo, Robert Louis-Guilhem, Scammacca Ottone, Mehdizadeh Rasool and Gunzburger Yann


Efficient propagation of imprecise probability models by imprecise line sampling
Pengfei Wei, Jingwen Song, Marcos A. Valdebenito and Michael Beer


Estimation of Second Order Statistics of Uncertain Linear Systems Applying Linear Expansion and Monte Carlo Simulation
C.H. Acevedo, I.V. González, M.A. Valdebenito and H.A. Jensen


Fatigue Stress Spectra and Reliability Evaluation of Short- to medium- span Bridges under Stochastic and Dynamic Traffic Load
Ming Yuan, Yuan Luo, Donghuang Yan and Lian Huang


Fragility Analysis of a Real Building
Grace S. Wang and Fu-Kuo Huang


Improved Support Vector Regression Based Metamodel for Reliability Analysis of Structure
Atin Roy and Subrata Chakraborty


Influence of Equivalent Stiffness on the Behavior of Buildings Subjected to Soil Settlements
El Kahi Elioab, Hung Vu, Bohal Yves, Mehdizadeh Rasool, Khouri Michel, Deck Olivier and Rahme Pierre


Information Theory for Data-driven Risk Analysis: The Informational Coefficient of Correlation as a Measure of Dependency
Umberto Alibrandi and Khalid M. Mosalam


Mechanistic Model for Dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction and Natural Frequency Assessment of Monopile Offshore Wind Turbine Structures
Yasothorn Sapsathiarn and Thanyawut Wansuwan


Modeling of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Probabilistic Design of Cylindrical Shells
Marc Fina, Patrick Weber and Werner Wagner


Numerical Framework for Fatigue Life Prediction of Steel Wire Ropes Employing Damage-based Failure Models
M. F. Abdulhamid, M. Kamarudin, H. S. Kang, A. S. Kader, M. N. Tamin, S. Ahmad and S. Badshah


Probabilistic Prediction of Ultimate Strength and Strain of Corroded Steel Strands
Jaebeom Lee, Young-Joo Lee and Chang-Su Shim


Refinement of Probability of Failure Estimation in DOProC method
Petr Janas, Martin Krejsa and Vlastimil Krejsa


Reliability analysis method considering random, interval and fuzzy parameter uncertainties compounded by ontological ambiguity
Kaixuan Feng and Zhenzhou Lu


Reliability Analysis of Straight Bars with Multiple Sub-rectangles Considered Strength Degradation
Xinshui Yu, Tianxiang Yu and Kunling Song


Reliability Assessment of Bridges based on Monitoring
Markova Jana, Holicky Milan, Sýkora Miroslav and Jung Karel


Reliability Based Integrated Optimization of MR Dampers for Semiactive Control of Randomly Base-Excited Structures
Yongbo Peng and Zhenkai Zhang


Reliability Estimation in Stochastic Linear Dynamics Applying Directional Importance Sampling
M.A. Valdebenito, M.A. Misraji, C.F. Mayorga and H.A. Jensen


Reliability Evaluation of Concrete Cable-stayed Bridges Subjected to Cable Rupture during Construction
Naiwei Lu, Yang Liu and Yuan Luo


Reliability Function for the Interval Stress Process of Randomly Excited Structures
Filippo Giunta, Giuseppe Muscolino and Alba Sofi


Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Linear Structures Subject to Dynamic Gaussian Excitation
M.A. Misraji, M.A. Valdebenito, C.F. Mayorga and H.A. Jensen


Similarity Characteristics of Soils – A Step towards Construction Reliability
Petr Koudelka


Stochastic Elastoplastic Plane Stress/Strain Analysis
Yuan Feng, Wei Gao and Di Wu


Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Random Variables and Interval Variables
Peng Huang, Hong Zhong Huang and Hua-Ming Qian


Structural Reliability and Durability Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Structures
Steffen Freitag, Katharina Kremer, Philipp Edler, Michael Hofmann and Günther Meschke


The Reliability Analysis for the Hybrid Uncertain Structure with the Fuzzy Failure Criterion Based on Non-Probabilistic Theory
Guijie Li, Fayuan Wei, Zeshu Song and Chaoyang Xie


Time Domain Simulation of Earthquake Excited Buildings using a Fuzzy Stochastic Approach
Patrick Weber, Marc Fina and Werner Wagner


Time-dependent Mechanism Reliability Analysis for Planer Linkage with Random Joint Clearance
Zhihua Wang and Zhonglai Wang


Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of Connecting Bolts for Motor Hanger of EMU
Yonghua Li, Pengpeng Zhi, Bingzhi Chen, Suming Xie and Yuedong Wang


M13 - System Reliability

A Decomposition approach for Computation of Survival Signatures of Heterogeneous Systems with Subsystems with Shared Components
Daniel Krpelík, Frank P.A. Coolen and Louis J.M. Aslett


A General Framework for Integrated RAMI Analysis of Nuclear/non-nuclear Facilities
Karol Kowal, Sławomir Potempski, Eryk Turski and Paweł M. Stano


A Renewal Theory Approach to Cost Effective Component Swapping to Increase System Reliability
Aesha M. Najem and Frank P.A. Coolen


Adequate Tacit Knowledge Management for Railways: A Conceptual Framework
Yawar Abbas and Mohammad Rajabalinejad


An Energy Flow based Uncertainty Network Modeling Method for Mechatronic System Reliability Analysis
Wensheng Peng, Zhaoyang Zeng and Zhanyong Ren


Analyzing Trust Failures in Safety Critical Systems
Gabriela Limonta and Ian Oliver


Based on GTS Formal Model Research on Reliability Test Profile Method of Hard-software System
Yao Jinyong, Zhen Jiangyun and Sheng Tao


Breaking the Limits of Redundancy Systems Analysis
Clemens Dubslaff, Kai Ding, Andrey Morozov, Christel Baier and Klaus Janschek


Common Cause Failure Importance Analysis for Aerospace Systems
Jinhua Mi, Michael Beer, Yan-Feng Li, Matteo Broggi and Yuhua Cheng


Customer Segments and their Reliability Characteristics Generated from field Operation and Warranty Data
Thomas Köttermann and Stefan Bracke


Digital Twin for Reliability Analysis During Design and Operation of Mechatronic Systems
Thorben Kaul, Amelie Bender and Walter Sextro


Dynamic Reliability Evaluation of Binary Weighted k-out-of-n System with Dependent Components based on Multivariate Copulas
Xinchen Zhuang, Tianxiang Yu and Bozhi Guo


Dynamic Reliability Model for Subsea Pipeline Risk Assessment due to Third Party Damage
Reza Aulia, Henry Tan and Srinivas Sriramula


e-LNG Plant Availability Estimation
Elisa Carlucci and Leonardo Tognarelli


Estimation of Reliability for Aircraft Systems as Regards the Impact of Destructive Ageing Processes
Mariusz Zieja, Mariusz Ważny, Michal Jasztal and Sławomir Stępień


Forecasting Reliability of Components/Systems in Automobile Applications with Respect to three Variables of Stress in Field based on Neural Network
Abderrahim Krini and Josef Börcsök


Fractal Characteristics of Complex Networks with Cascading Failures
Xin Zhang, Ning Huang and Yanan Bai


Improvement Approaches in the Field of Reliability Forecasting for Components/Systems in Automobile Applications with Respect of Multivariate Stress Factors
Abderrahim Krini and Josef Börcsök


Independence Classification, Split Logic and Shared Final Element for All-Electric Subsea Safety System
Peter Okoh, Tor Onshus, Ellen Lycke, Einar Winther-Larssen and Jone Nicolai Sigmundstad


Information Access in Disaster Areas
Silke Holtmanns, Ian Oliver and Hannu Hietalahti


Integrated Availability Assessment of Redundant URT's Vehicle Control System by GSPN
Siqi Luo, Shaoping Wang and Jian Shi


Integrating Satisfiability Solving in the Assessment of System Reliability Modeled by Dynamic Fault Trees
Margaux Duroeulx, Nicolae Brînzei, Marie Duflot and Stephan Merz


Iterative and Incremental Development of Reliable Systems
Marc Zeller and Sebastian Klabes


Methodology for Imprecise Availability Computing and Optimization
Joanna Akrouche, Mohamed Sallak, Eric Châtelet, Fahed Abdallah and Hiba Haj Chhadé


Monte Carlo Simulation to Consider Uncertainty in the Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Positioning Systems
Victor R. L. Souza-Franco, Maria V. Clavijo, Adriana M. Schleder and Marcelo R. Martins


MTBF (Metric That Betrays Folk)
Cristian Maiorano, Emanuele Pascale, Fred Schenkelberg, Laurent Bouillaut, Paolo Sannino, Yusmery Solorzano, Stanislao Borriello and Pietro Marmo


On Some Applications of the Fleet Assignment Models for Measurement of Schedule Reliability Performance in Unstable Environment
Andrzej Słodownik, Mirosław Kowalski and Józef Żurek


Performance Assessment of Safety-instrumented Systems Subject to Cascading Failures in High-demand Mode
Lin Xie, Mary Ann Lundteigen, Yiliu Liu, Elias Kassa and Shengyang Zhu


Quantitative FMEA and Functional Safety Metrics Evaluation in Bayesian Networks
Matthias Rauschenbach and Jürgen Nuffer


Redundancy Allocation Problem of Phased-mission System with Mixed Stand-by Redundancy Strategy
Xiang-Yu Li, Yan-Feng Li and Hong-Zhong Huang


Reliability Analysis of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Support Structure using Hierarchical Bayesian Network
He Li and C. Guedes Soares


Reliability Aproach to Assessment of Existing Structures
Milan Holický


Reliability Assessment Method based on Performance Degradation Data from Multi-axial Direction of Motor
Yusheng Sun, Lizhi Wang, Xiaohong Wang, Xuejiao Zhao, Tongmin Jiang and Tielin Ma


Reliability Assessment of a Complex System with Unspecified Structure and Overlapping Test Data
Lechang Yang, Yanling Guo, Qiang Wang and Zifan Kong


Reliability Evaluation of Radar Servo Control System Based on Enhanced GO Methodology
Jin-e. Huang, Jun Tian, Xiaojun.Zhang and Dongyi.Wang


Reliability Factors Analyses for Gas Transmission Items
Florent Brissaud, Leïla Marle and Denis Faure


Reliability Modeling and Evaluation for Command and Control Network Based on FTA Method
Yifan Li, Hong-Zhong Huang and Xiang Li


Reliability Modeling of Aircraft Feel Simulator with Time-Varying Dependent Degradation Processes
Linjie Shen, Yugang Zhang and Bifeng Song


Representative Natural Hazard Scenarios for Risk Assessment of Spatially Distributed Infrastructure Systems
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez and Daniel Straub


Research on Model Based Method of Reliability Analysis for Space System
Sha Qin, Liming Ren, Fengxi Chen, Wei Zhang, Xiaopeng Li, Libing Zhao, Ding Liu and Xiaodong Shi


Research on Technical Framework of Helicopter Transmission System Reliability
Huichao Liu and Wei Wang


Stochastic Petri Nets Modeling for Reliability, Availability and Maintainability Study of a Power Generation Plant
M.R. Jalal, M.F. Abdulhamid, H.S. Kang, A.S. Kader, M.N. Tamin and Eduard Lotovskyi


The Application of Reliability Allocation Methodology, From Preliminary Test Data, to Design a Definitive Test Plan. Application to Mechanical Heart Replacement Technology
L. Saintis, B. Castanier, A. Kobi, F. Guérin, M. Mélot, G. Mingot, M. Grimmé, C. Blanchon and P. Dubuis


Time-dependent Unavailability Assessment of Final Element of Safety Instrumented Systems- an Application of Multiphase Markov Process
Islam Abu Md Ariful, Srivastav Himanshu, Vatn Jørn, Barros Anne and Lundteigen Mary Ann


Towards Standardizing the Generation of Component Fault Trees through the Engineering Life Cycle
Axel Berres, Tim Bittner and Marc Zeller


Vehicle Operation Process Analysis using the Markov Processes
Józef Żurek, Mariusz Zieja, Jarosław Ziółkowski and Anna Borucka


Wind Farms Reliability Modelling for Life Cycle Cost Analysis
Fredy Kristjanpoller, Mónica López-Campos, Pablo Viveros, Rodrigo Pascual, Vicente González-Prida and Adolfo Crespo


M14 - Uncertainty Analysis

A Novel Algorithm for Global Reliability Sensitivity Analysis by Metamodel-based Importance Sampling, Adaptive Kriging Model and Space-partition
Wanying Yun, Zhenzhou Lu and Pengfei He


A PDEM-COM Framework for Quantification of Epistemic Uncertainty
Zhiqiang Wan, Jianbing Chen, Jie Li and Michael Beer


A Problem in the Bayesian Analysis of Data without Gold Standards
Nick Gray, Marco De Angelis, Dominic Calleja and Scott Ferson


Bayesian Updating with Reduced Experimental Data
P. Beaurepaire


Belief Reliability Evaluation with Uncertain Information using Max Entropy Principle
Tianpei Zu, Meilin Wen, Rui Kang and Qingyuan Zhang


Cross-dependence Between Interval Fields in Finite Element models: Definition and Analysis
Matthias Faes and David Moens


Density Estimation and Data-Enclosing Sets using Sliced-Normal Distributions
Luis G. Crespo, Sean P. Kenny, Brendon Colbert and Daniel P. Giesy


Dynamical Model of Repelling Particles for Construction of Distance-based Designs
Miroslav Vořechovský, Jan Mašek and Jan Eliáš


Generalizing Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Right-Censored Data to Two Future Observations
Ali M. Mahnashi, Tahani Coolen-Maturi and Frank P.A. Coolen


Model Updating of Model Parameters and Model Form Error in a Uniform Framework
Sifeng Bi, Nils Wagner, Michael Beer and Morvan Ouisse


Modeling Spatial Dependence in Local Risks and Uncertainties
Philipp Otto


Non-linear Finite Element Analysis under Mixed Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertain Random Field Input
Mona M. Dannert, Rodolfo M.N. Fleury, Amelie Fau and Udo Nackenhorst


Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Warranties Based on Accelerated Life Testing
Abdullah A.H. Ahmadini and Frank P.A. Coolen


Optimal Ultrasonic Sensor Configuration Based on Value of Information
Sergio Cantero-Chinchilla, Juan Chiachío and Manuel Chiachío


Probabilistic Modelling for Frequency Response Functions and Transmissibility Functions with Complex Ratio Statistics
Meng-Yun Zhao, Wang-Ji Yan, Wei-Xin Ren and Michael Beer


Rare Event Modelling for Stochastic Dynamic Systems approximated by the Probability Density Evolution Method
Bittner M., Broggi M. and Beer M.


Sensitivity Analysis in the Transmission of Ground Movements to Structures considering the Variability of Soil-Structure Interaction Parameters
El Kahi Elio, Mehdizadeh Rasool, Khouri Michel, Deck Olivier and Rahme Pierre


Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Assessment with Data-Driven Dependence Modeling
G. Sarazin, J. Morio, A. Lagnoux, M. Balesdent and L. Brevault


SMUQ: an Uncertainty Quantification Software for Mechanical Performance Evaluation of Engineering Structures
Niu Hongpan, Xie Ke, Fan Zhigeng, Liu Xinen and Xiao Shifu


The Cusunoro Curve: A Visual Tool for Global Sensitivity Analysis
Elmar Plischke


The Use of Parametric Reduced-order Models in Stochastic Structural Dynamics: Application to Uncertainty Propagation Analysis
H.A. Jensen, F. Mayorga, D.J. Jerez and M.A. Valdebenito


Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Models for Assessing Oxygen Deficiency Hazard: Preliminary Results
Elena Stefana, Filippo Marciano and Paola Cocca


M15 - Software Reliability and Safety

Analysis First Development for Agile Development of Safety-Critcal Software
Thor Myklebust, Tor Stålhane and Geir K. Hanssen


Application of Method of Manufactures Solutions in Code Verification
Wei Lan, Wang Ruili, Liu Xiqiang and Liu Yuxia


Approach for Evaluation of Software Failure Modes in Software-based I&C Systems in Nuclear Power Plants
Hervé Mbonjo and Ewgenij Piljugin


Coupling Model Checking and PSA – A Case Study
Kim Björkman and Antti Pakonen


Early Prediction of Reliability/Availability for Embedded System Based on Conceptual Design
Sourav Sinha, Neeraj Kumar Goyal and Rajib Mall


Software Errors and Human Reliability
Tor Stålhane and Stig Ole Johnsen


The Paradox of Software Errors and Dangerous System Failures Caused by Software
Jens Braband and Hendrik Schäbe


M16 - Environmental Risk Analysis

Anatomy of a Tragedy: 2017 Open Dump Landside Disaster in Meethotamulla (Colombo)
Deshai Botheju


Environmental Risk Assessments as Input to a Decision-Making Process: Examples From a Barents Sea Project
Eric Ford, Hans Petter Lohne and Jon Tømmerås Selvik


Life Cycle Option Selection of Disassembly Part for Recovery Rate and Cost Considering Reliability
Shota Hasegawa, Tetsuo Yamada and Stefan Bracke


M17 - Organizational Factors and Safety Culture

Assessing Safety Culture in the Largest European Airlines
Svajone Bekesiene, Sarka Hoskova-Mayerova and Vilmantas Bekesius


Beyond the Numbers: A Qualitative Field Study Exploring Negative Trends in HSE Climate in the Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry
Asbjørn Lein Aalberg, Rolf Johan Bye, Sverre Andreas Kvalheim, Roar Høydal and Leif Inge Sørskår


Development of Innovative Products Versus Safety Engineering: Avoiding Goal Conflicts
Stefan Bracke and Monika Piskala


How to Build Rules for Managed Safety: Diminishing or Coping Uncertainty
Natalia Jubault Krasnopevtseva


Human and Organizational Factors for Resilience of High-risk Military Operations: an Exploratory Study
Svajone Bekesiene, Audrone Petrauskaite, Rolanda Kazlauskaite Markeliene and Rasa Gedminiene


Internationalization of the Construction Industry: A Short Review of the Consequences for Occupational Safety
Trond Kongsvik


Making Sense of Bridge Design: How Seamanship may Challenge Technology-as-designed
Brit-Eli Danielsen and Gunnar M. Lamvik


Perceptions of Ferry Crew Members’ Emergency Preparedness Capacities
Asbjørn Aalberg, Rolf Johan Bye and Leif Inge K. Sørskår


Professionalization in Safety: Creating Effective Learning Environments
Christian Foussard and Wim Van Wassenhove


Transfer of Training Addressing Unforeseen Safety-critical Events in Nuclear Power Plant Operations
Ann Britt Skjerve, Lars Holmgren, Magnhild Kaarstad and Espen Nystad


Trust me, You Will Benefit From Tearing Down Your Workplace!
Grete Rindahl and Ann Britt Skjerve


M18 - Risk Analysis and Safety in Standardization

Clarifying Implementation of Safe Design Principles in IEC 61508: Challenges of Novel Subsea Technology Development
N.A. Zikrullah, H. Kim, M.A. Lundteigen and M.J.P. van der Meulen


Influence of the Penetrator Shape on Safety Evaluation of Machine Tools Guards
Luca Landi, Alessandro Stecconi, Fabio Pera, Ernesto Del Prete and Carlo Ratti


Investigation on the effect of novel cutting fluids with modified ingredients regarding the long-term resistance of polycarbonate used as machine guards in cutting operations (KSS-PC)
Eckart Uhlmann, Kai Haberbosch, Simon Thom, Sophie Drieux, Alex Schwarze and Mitchel Polte


Managing Emerging Risks for Enhanced Resilience: Aligning approaches Internationally
A. S. Jovanović


On-Board Train Integrity: Safety Requirements Analysis
Insaf Sassi and El-Miloudi El-Koursi


Overview of a Complete Hardware Safety Integrity Verification According to IEC 61508 for the CERN Next Generation of Radiation Monitoring Safety System
Saskia Kristina Hurst, Hamza Boukabache and Daniel Perrin


Probabilities in Safety of Machinery: 1. Markov Model for Risk Comparisons
Heinrich Mödden


Probabilities in Safety of Machinery: 2. Risk Reduction Effects with Special Operating Modes
Heinrich Mödden


Safety of Slim Tool Extensions for Milling Operations
Eckart Uhlmann, Simon Thom, Enrico Barth, Thomas Pache and Lukas Prasol


Similarity analysis of terminologies in standards: Case study on international RAMS standards
Huixing Meng, Kanittha Setthapitayakul and Yan-Fu Li


The Communication of Vision Zero Values in Tunnel Safety Management
Tonja Knapstad, Morten Sommer and Ove Njå


Use of Different Time Periods in MTTF Estimation – Discussion on the Need for Improved Guidance in Reliability Standards
Jon T. Selvik, Jean-Pierre Signoret and Francisco J. S. Alhanati


Utilization Rates of NC Lathe Machine for the Evaluation of Safety Requirements
Luca Landi, Enrico Annacondia and Mirco Vertelli


Weak Point Analysis of Human Machine Interactions at Clamping of Turning Workpieces on Milling Machines
Volker Wittstock, Patrick Puschmann, Adrian Albero Rojas, Matthias Putz and Heinrich Mödden


T01 - Aeronautics and Aerospace

A Method for Estimation and Prediction of the Efficiency of the Proactive Prevention Applied in the Aircraft Transport
Mariusz Zieja, Jarosław Wójcik, Piotr Migus and Mirosław Zieja


Analysis of Influencing Factors of Fluoride Precipitation in Cable for Hermetic Cabin in Space
Wang Zheng, Zhang Yi, Li Xingxing, Li Bin and Gao Lin


Analysis of Uncertainty as a Factor Influencing Aircraft Boarding Process Reliability
Beata Płanda and Jacek Skorupski


Effect of Temperature and Strain-rate on Mechanical Properties of Thermoplastic Polyurethane Interlayer
Muhammad Zakir Sheikh, Tao Suo, Yulong Li, Xiang Guo, Bing Du, Penghao Pei and Uzair Ahmed Dar


Hazards and Risk Minimization of Manned Interplanetary Missions
Justyna Tomaszewska, Marta Woch, Damian Mazurek, Norbert Grzesik and Mariusz Zieja


Lessons Learned from Increased Automation in Aviation: The Paradox Related to the High Degree of Safety and Implications for Future Research
T.E. Evjemo and S.O. Johnsen


Management of Single Event Effects in Helicopters Avionic
Stéphane Bailly and Nathalie Verite


Neutron Induced SEU Rate Prediction of SRAMs by Using Support Vector Machine and Neural Network
Cheng Gao, Chengcheng Fu, Mingjie Zhang and Jiaoying Huang


Reliability Estimation for Reciprocating Seals of Aircraft Actuators under Segmental Stress History
Rentong Chen, Shaoping Wang, Chao Zhang and Mileta Tomovic


Wear Prediction of the Hinge in An Aircraft Lock Mechanism
Tianyang Pang, Tianxiang Yu and Xinchen Zhuang


T02 - Chemical and Process Industry

A Human Factors Review of Road Tanker Offloading Across Multiple Organizations: Simple, Complicated and Complex problems
Dominic Furniss, Mark Sujan, Jamie Henderson and David Embrey


Applications of Bayesian Networks in Chemical and Process Industries: A Review
Hamza Zerrouki, Hector Diego Estrada-Lugo, Hacene Smadi and Edoardo Patelli


Development of a Blockchain for Operational Follow-up of Safety Instrumented Systems
Jeevith Hegde, Nathaniel John Edwin and Ashutosh Kumar


T03 - Civil Engineering

Artificial Ground Freezing Technique in Tunnel Construction Considering Uncertain Drilling Inaccuracy of Freeze Pipes
Yong Liu, Kaiqi Li, Peitao Li and Jun Hu


Assessment of Sensitivity Analysis Methods of Different Complexity for Offshore Wind Turbines
Clemens Hüubler, Cristian G. Gebhardt and Raimund Rolfes


Blast and Impact Analyses of RC Beams Considering Bond-slip Effect
Hyo-Gyoung Kwak and MinJoo Lee


Comparative Analysis of the Safety Level of River Levees taking Uncertain Geotechnical Parameters into Account
Niklas Drews, Jürgen Stamm and Markus Nieren


Computational Complexity of Experiment Design in Civil Engineering
Olga Kosheleva, Yan Wang and Vladik Kreinovich


Contrasting Safety Management Approaches for Natural Disasters Applied to Landslides in Sandnes (Norway)
Diego López Mulero and Ove Njå


Extraction of Damage Information in Presence of Parametric Uncertainty using Dimensionality Reduction
Purushottam Kumar Chaudhary, Kumar Anjneya, Divya Grover and Koushik Roy


Influence of Spatial Variability of Soil Properties on Structures Response
El Kahi Elio, Deck Olivier, Khouri Michel, Mehdizadeh Rasool, Conin Marianne and Rahme Pierre


On Correlation and Underlying Physics
Bernt J. Leira, Wei Chai and Chana Sinsabvarodom


Optimization of Tree Trunk Axes Locations in Polymorphic Uncertain Modeled Timber Structures
F. Niklas Schietzold, Wolfgang Graf and Michael Kaliske


Performance-based Durability Design of Concrete Structures under Uncertainty
Jesko Gerlach, Ludger Lohaus and Michael Haist


Phase Similarity Model Between Element Waves of Adjacent Element Faults for Simulated Ground Motion Based on the Stochastic Green’s Function Method
Haruka Yokoyama, Hajime Iwai and Masayuki Kohiyama


Probability Distribution of Torsional Response Induced by Lateral Displacement and Inertial Force
Hiroki Yokoyama and Masayuki Kohiyama


Probability-based Remaining Service Time Prediction for Corroded Shell of a Steel Tank used for Liquid Fuel Storage
Mariusz Maslak and Michal Pazdanowski


Quantitative Risk Assessment on Landslides Considering Spatial Variability of Soils
Yong Liu, Yanan Ding, Guan Chen and Jiang Tao Yi


Redundancy in Truss Systems under Uncertainty Considerations
Mustafa Guevenc and Panagiotis Spyridis


Reliability-based Robust Design Optimization of a Rock Salt Cavern
Elham Mahmoudi and Markus König


Seepage Evaluation in Tunnel Construction Considering the Spatial Variability of Surrounding Soils
Yong Liu, Ruohan Wang, Manyu Wang and Elton J. Chen


Vibration-Based Damage Detection of Steel Bridges Using Bayesian Hypothesis Testing
Yoshinao Goi and Chul-Woo Kim


T04 - Critical Infrastructures

A Simplified Approach for the Prioritization of Bridge Stock Seismic Retrofitting
Mauro D'Apuzzo, Azzurra Evangelisti, Vittorio Nicolosi, Alessandro Rasulo, Daniela Santilli and Mirco Zullo


A zero-sum Markov Defender-attacker Game for Modeling False Pricing in Smart Grids and its Solution by Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning
Daogui Tang, Yi-Ping Fang and Enrico Zio


Applying Systems Theory to Increase Competence in Tunnel Fire Safety – Focusing on the Fire and Rescue Services
Gabriela Bjørnsen and Ove Njå


Cyber-physical Threats and Real-time Monitoring of Critical Infrastructure
Jørn Vatn


Data-Driven Extraction of Association Rules of Dependent Abnormal Behaviour Groups
Federico Antonello, Piero Baraldi, Ahmed Shokry, Enrico Zio, Ugo Gentile and Luigi Serio


Determinants of Dynamic Resilience Modelling in Critical Infrastructure Elements
David Rehak, Vendula Onderkova and Veronika Brabcova


Exploitation of Electronic Systems in Building Objects Exposed to Impact of Strong Electromagnetic Pulses
Adam Rosiński, Jacek Paś, Jarosław Łukasiak and Marek Szulim


Failure Forecast of The Water Supply Network
Krzysztof Boryczko


Hybrid Bayesian Network Algorithm based on MCMC and Subset Simulation for Reliability Analysis
Kilian Zwirglmaier and Daniel Straub


Identification of Assets of Metro Operation in Praha and Determination of their Criticality
Tomas Kertis and Dana Prochazkova


Measure for Bridges Safety Management Improvement
Jan Prochazka, Dana Prochazkova and Zdenko Prochazka


Modeling National Interdependent Critical Infrastructures: Application and Discussion for the Swedish Power and Internet Backbone
Tove Rydén Sonesson and Jonas Johansson


Operational Resilience of Urban Water Distribution Networks
Wei Liu and Zhaoyang Song


Representation and Modeling of the Chilean Electric Power Network for Seismic Resilience Analysis
E. Ferrario, A. Poulos, J. C. de la Llera, A. Lorca, A. Oneto and C. Magnere


Resilience Management of Infrastructure Systems from a Multistage Decision Making Perspective
Yi-Ping Fang and Enrico Zio


Safety and Security of Ports with LNG Bunkering Systems
Olga Aneziris, Ioanna Koromila, Ernesto Salzano, Marko Gerbec and Zoe Nivolianitou


The Influence of Atmospheric Factors on the Failure Rate of Critical Infrastructure
Izabela Piegdoń, Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak and Julia Sokolan


Visualization of Critical Infrastructure Resilience Using TreeMap
I. Shapira, U. Barzelay, K. Øien and A. Jovanovic


T05 - Energy

All-contingency Approach to Risk Assessment of Multi-Area Power Grids
Daniel Jung, Michel Vandenbergh, Ana Raquel Tibúrcio Castanho, Hugo Calisto and Ricardo Bolado Lavin


Artificial Intelligence in Prognostic Maintenance
Sunday Ochella and Mahmood Shafiee


Data-Driven Identification of Critical Components in Complex Technical Infrastructures Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
Xuefei Lu, Federico Antonello, Piero Baraldi and Enrico Zio


Defining Maintenance Significant Items Based on ISO 55000 and AHP: A Hydropower Plant Case Study
Renan Favarão da Silva, Arthur Henrique de Andrade Melani, Miguel Angelo de Carvalho Michalski, Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza and Silvio Ikuyo Nabeta


Indices under the Spotlight: An Approach to Unveil and Manage the Implicit Trade-offs between Indicators
Patrick Gasser, Marco Cinelli, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr and Božidar Stojadinović


Probabilistic Transmission Expansion Planning: On the Effects of Outcome Variability on Decision-making
Willems Sander, Labeau Pierre-Etienne, Maun Jean-Claude, Vergnol Arnaud and Sprooten Jonathan


The Power Grid Operator of the Future: A Case Method for Developing Organizational Capabilities Required to Successfully Adapt in a Fast-changing Market
Lars Hurlen, Jan Erik Farbrot, Asgeir Drøivoldsmo and Kine Reegård


Updating a Hydro Power Plant Monitoring System Through Failure Modes and Symptoms Analysis
Arthur Henrique de Andrade Melani, Carlos Alberto Murad, Miguel Angelo de Carvalho Michalski, Adherbal Caminada Netto, Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza and Silvio Ikuyo Nabeta


T07 - Land Transportation

A qualitative study of the rider training system for younger riders in powered two-wheelers (PTW) class AM146 and A1, and its effect on risk.
Gunhild Birgitte Sætren, Jan Petter Wigum and Petter Helmersen Bogfjellmo


Comparison of Analytical Formulas of PFH and PMHF Calculation for M-out-of-N Redundancy Architecture
Elena Rogova, Christian Nowak, Matthias Ramold and Udo Steininger


Development of an Extended RAMS Framework for Railway Networks
Jack Litherland, Gareth Calvert, John Andrews and Andy Kirwan


Frequencies of Leaks of Dangerous Goods from Road Tankers
John Spouge


Information Extraction of Railway Accident Reports Using Text Mining
L. L. Hua and W. Zheng


Justification of Calculated Cases for the Assessment of the Basic Properties of Land Vehicles
Vladimir Algin


Opportunities and Limitations in use of Simulators in Driver Training in Norway. A Qualitative Study.
Gunhild Birgitte Sætren, Toril Fagerli Birkeland, Pål Andreas Pedersen, Catharina Lindheim and Martin Rasmussen


Possible use of Responsibility Trees in Safety Authorization of Light Rail Vehicles
Piotr Smoczyński, Adrian Gill, Mateusz Motyl and Tomasz Staśkiewicz


Quantitative Analysis for Resilience-based Urban Rail Systems: A Hybrid Knowledge-Based and Data-driven Approach
Xianliang Ren, Jiateng Yin and Tao Tang


Quantitative Safety Evaluation for Communication-based Train Control Systems with Timed Coloured Petri Nets
Daohua Wu, Yan Li and Chao Liu


Traffic Control Center Design Concept for the Norwegian Railway
Lars Hurlen, Mikael Rosenqvist, Michael Louka, Grete Rindahl, Asgeir Drøivoldsmo and Harald Ulsten


Utilizing analogue and digital emergency stop functionalities in global system for mobile communication for rail
Marek Pawlik


T08 - Manufacturing

Hardness Prediction Model of Aluminium Alloy with Hardening Behaviour induced by High Pressure Torsion
Ahmad Kamal Ariffn, Fauziana Lamin and Intan Fadhlina Mohamed


Indicator for Measuring Performance of Planned Maintenance Stops – An Enabler for Continuous Improvement
Jon Martin Fordal


On the Relationship Between Machine Reliability Parameters and Buffer Capacities in Unreliable Production Lines
Lei Li, Xu Luo and Shi-Gang Zhang


T09 - Maritime and Offshore Technology

A Practical Method for Generating Stochastic Release Scenarios for Smart Gas Sensing
Claudia Vivalda and Claudia Iurato


An Efficient Metamodelling based Fragility Analysis Procedure of offshore Structure under Extreme Wave
Soumya Bhattacharjya, Swagato Majumder and Gaurav Datta


An Extensive Form Game Based Multi-Ship Collision Avoidance Scheme
Yang Wang, Xudong Ouyang, Bing Wu and Tengfei Wang


Applying a Bayesian Network Methodology to an Offshore gas Turbine Driven Power Generator to Demonstrate the Cause and Effect Relationship of the Turbine Running Over-speed and the Associated Switchboard Failures
S. Loughney, J. Wang and D. B. Matellini


Classification Heuristic for Selecting a Suitable Idealized Wave Spectrum based on Excited Ship Motions and Current Weather
Sovanna Chhoeung, Tim Wüllner and Axel Hahn


Empirical Reliability Analysis of a Safety-related Battery
Tobias Winter, Jan Schnitzler, Johannes Schick, Julian Popp, Sebastian Imle, Markus Glaser and Bernd Bertsche


Improvements in rules and regulations to support sensemaking in safety-critical maritime operations
S. O. Johnsen, S. S. Kilskar and B.E. Danielsen


Investigation on the Reliability of Laterally Loaded Monopile Foundations
Jann-Eike Saathoff, Kirill Alexander Schmoor, Martin Achmus and Mauricio Terceros


Miniature Marine Structures to Reproduce Structural Damage in Ship Collision Scenarios: From Similarity Laws to Additive Manufactured Models
Miguel Angel Calle Gonzales, Pentti Kujala, Mika Salmi, Roberto Oshiro, Leonardo Mazzariol and Marcílio Alves


Online Risk Modelling for Supervisory Risk Control of Autonomous Marine Systems
Ingrid Bouwer Utne, Børge Rokseth, Asgeir J. Sørensen and Jan Erik Vinnem


Risk of Ship Near Collision Scenarios off the Coast of Portugal
H. Rong, A. P. Teixeira and C. Guedes Soares


Risk-Based Resilience Analysis of Maritime Container Transport Networks
Chengpeng Wan, Zaili Yang, Xinping Yan, Di Zhang, Eduardo Blanco-Davis and Jun Ren


Safety and Reliability Analysis of an Actuation System
Sebastian Imle, Tobias Winter, Julian Popp, Markus Glaser and Bernd Bertsche


Sensemaking in High-risk Situations. The Challenges Faced by Dynamic Positioning Operators
Lars Hurlen, Ann Britt Skjerve and Andreas Bye


The Surrounding Water Effect in the Speedboat Collision Modeling
Krirkkajon Tanadrob, Chakrit Suvanjumrat and Wonsiri Punurai


T10 - Natural Hazards

A Stochastic Approach for Enhancing Forest Fire Emergency Readiness
Claudia Vivalda, Vittorio Verda, Andrea Carpignano and Elisa Guelpa


Comparison of the Assessment Results of the Municipality Area Vulnerability to Natural Disaster Risks
Alena Oulehlová


Multicriteria Modelling for Managing Flood Risks in Urban Areas
Da Silva Lucas Borges Leal, Humberto Júlia Santos, Lima Lucas Eduardo dos Santos, ALENCAR Marcelo Hazin, De Almeida Jonatas Araújo and DE ALMEIDA Adiel Teixeira


Social Capital and Disaster Resilience
Marie Nilsen, Torgeir Haavik and Petter Almklov


Spatial Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Consideration with Temporal Changes of Probabilities of Earthquakes Occurrence
Takayuki Hayashi and Harumi Yashiro


Uncertainty of Real-time Prediction for Pluvial Urban Floods: A Case Study
Simon Berkhahn, Robert Sämann, Bora Shehu, Insa Neuweiler and Uwe Haberlandt


T11 - Nuclear Industry

A Computerized Operator Support System to Monitor the Technical Specifications
Subong Lee and Jonghyun Kim


A Limit Surface Prediction for PWR LOCA Transients Using Adaptive Machine Learning Techniques
Ikuo Kinoshita


Agent-based Modeling to Integrate Dispersion Phenomena and Evacuation Options in Radiological Accidents
Yujeong Hwang and Gyunyoung Heo


Application and Evaluation of the Kirkpatrick Model (KPM) While Transfering Knowledge During the Renewal of Subcontractors at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Amaury Bazalgette, Jean-François Vautier, Guillaume Hernandez and Franck Guarnieri


Assessment of VVER 1000 Core Degradation for Spectrum of Large Break Sizes Along with SBO
P. Groudev, A. Stefanova and R. Gencheva


Decision Support Model For Annular Spacer Repositioning
Euan Barlow, Emma Comrie, Matthew Revie, Tim Bedford and Lesley Walls


Evaluation Fire-Induced Core Damage Frequency in the Motor Operated Valve Control Room by Coupling Circuit Analysis and Fire Modeling
Shuai Wang, Wanhong Wang, Changhong Peng and Yun Guo


Experience from Level 2 Site Risk Analysis for Nordic Power Plants
Jan-Erik Holmberg, Stefan Authén, Ola Bäckström, Xuhong He, Salvatore Massaiu and Tero Tyrväinen


IAEA Project on Aggregation of Various Risk Contributors for Nuclear Facilities
Shahen Poghosyan, Anders Gilbertson, Fernando Ferrante, Nathan Siu, Robertas Alzbutas and Tamas Siklossy


Insights from Meta Study of Nuclear Power Plants Operational Experience Topical Studies
Zdenko Šimić, Miguel Peinador Veira and Giustino Manna


Network-based Analysis of Hazard Dependency Patterns Prior to the Automated Integration into PSA Models
Nadine Berner and Matthias Utschick


Optimal Autonomous Operation for Power Control of Nuclear Power Plants by Using Deep Reinforcement Learning
Daeil Lee and Jonghyun Kim


Parametric and Non-parametric Methods for Estimating Multidimensional Tolerance Regions Associated to Safety Margins
J.F. Villanueva, S. Martorell, S. Carlos, F. Sanchez-Saez, I. Martón and A.I. Sánchez


Petri Nets and Pseudo-Bond Graphs for a Nuclear Reactor Primary Coolant System
Mark James Wootton, John Andrews, Adam L. Lloyd, Roger Smith, A. John Arul, Gopika Vinod, Shri Hari Prasad and Vipul Garg


Preliminary Evacuation Time Estimate in Korea and Its Application into Level 3 PSA
Sunghyun Park, Seokwoo Sohn, Hyunae Park and Moosung Jae


Reactivity Sensitivity Analysis for a Fuel Rod with Biconcave Cross Section in a PWR
M. V. A. Oliveira, D. G. Teixeira, T. D. Roberto, E. Henrice Jr. and P.F. Frutuoso e Melo


Reassessment of the Importance of the Safety Systems Availability in the NPP Accident Progression
E. Kichev and P. Groudev


Safety Design Method: A Comparative Study between Active and Passive Approaches
Youjian Zhang, Yanming Xiong and Hailin Zhao


Systems Thinking in Risk Management by Preventive & Detective Controls as an Ago-Antagonistic Systems Approach in the French Nuclear Sector
Diana Paola Moreno Alarcon, Jean François Vautier, Guillaume Hernandez and Franck Guarnieri


The Use of Records to Manage Risks Associated with the Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities
Frédérick Lamare and Aurélien Portelli


Towards an Interval Particle Transport Monte Carlo Method
Ander Gray, Andrew Davis and Edoardo Patelli


Uncertainty Assessment of Seismic Fragilities – a Modification of the Kennedy Ravindra Approach
Günter Becker, Alexios Camarinopoulos, Tanja Schenke, Stephan Kranz, Jörg Rattke and Andreas Strohm


T12 - Occupational Safety

Emerging Risk Management Versus Traditional Risk: Differences and Challenges in the Context of Occupational Health and Safety
F. Brocal, C. González-Gaya, M.A. Sebastián, G. Reniers and N. Paltrinieri


Is Whistleblowing a Safety Mechanism or a Threat? A Study of Petroleum-related Companies in Norway
Lillian Katarina Stene and Irene Eikemo


New Risks in OHS with Focus on Selected Nanotechnological Workplaces
Petra Roupcová, Karel Klouda, Marek Nechvátal, Kateřina Bátrlová and Šárka Bernatiková


Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis of Occupational Safety Intervention for Readymade Garment Factories A case study of Bangladesh
Sikder Mohammad Tawhidul Hasan, Abdul Kaium, Shakeel Ahmed, Saqib Mehmood, Anders Schmidt Kristensen and Dewan Ahsan


The Occupational Hazard of Needlestick Injuries in the Medical environment. Evidence from the Bank of Cyprus Oncology Centre in Cyprus from 2006-2017
Bachtsetzis Chris and Athanasiou George


The Resistance of Surface Coatings Exposed to Thermal Load
Vojtech Jankuj, Miroslav Mynarz and Petr Lepik


T13 - Security & Cyber Security

A Method for Network Security Situation Prediction Based on LSTM
Wendi Zhang, Tian Bai, Fuqiang Sun and Tongmin Jiang


A Semi-formal Approach Towards Likelihood Evaluation in Cybersecurity Risk Assessment
Jens Braband and Hendrik Schäbe


An Approach to Software Assisted Physical Security Risk Analysis and Optimization
Daniel Lichte, Dustin Witte and Kai-Dietrich Wolf


Approaching Societal Safety from the Urban Perspective
Ana Llopis Alvarez and Ove Njå


Can we Really Prevent Security Vulnerabilities at the Source?
Ted Stewart


Establishing a Cybersecurity Centre for Industrial Control Systems
Vikash Katta, Fabien Sechi, Per-Arne Jørgensen, Stine Strand, Per Axel Wiig, John Eidar Simensen and Siv Hilde Houmb


How the Counter-radicalization Discourse Securitizes Education and Why this Might not be an Effective Approach to Preventing Terrorism
Martin M. Sjøen and Sissel H. Jore


How will Different Risk Perspectives within Naval Organizations in the High North Affect Societal Resilience?
Lillian Katarina Stene and Richard Utne


Improving Security and Safety Co-analysis of STPA
Erik Nilsen Torkildson, Jingyue Li and Stig Ole Johnsen


Model based Design of Intrusion Detection Systems for ICS
Mohamad Houssein Monzer, Kamal Beydoun and Jean-Marie Flaus


Nuclear Facilities and Cyber Threats
Silvia Tolo and John Andrews


Risk Assessment of the Development of Electronic Warfare Capabilities
Petr Hlavizna and Alena Oulehlová


Safety of the Signaling Data Processing and Transfer – Railway Cybercrime Immunity Challenge
Marek Pawlik


The Agile RAMSS Lifecycle for the Future
Thor Myklebust, Per Håkon Meland, Tor Stålhane and Geir K. Hanssen


The Concept of Cybersecurity Culture
Kine Reegård, Claire Blackett and Vikash Katta


The Multifaceted Aspect of Uncertainty – the Significance of Addressing Uncertainty in the Management of the Transboundary Wicked Problem of Terrorism
Sissel H. Jore


T14 - Oil and Gas Industry

A Methodology to Use Multi-Objective Optimization Criteria for an Offshore Topside Production System Since the Early Design Stages, and for The Unit Life Cycle
Lima E. N., Benites R. D., Mosleh A. and Martins M. R.


Assessment of Reliability of the Above-ground Arctic Oil Pipeline under the Influence of a Random Process of Subsidence/heaving of Supports
Burukhina O.S., Bushinskaya A.V. and Timashev S.A.


Estimation of the Multivariate Distribution of Flows - Pressures to supply a Gas Network
Arantxa Aznárez, Cintia Hartmann, Nicola Zaccarelli, Hugo Calisto, Nuria Rodríguez-Gómez and Ricardo Bolado Lavín


Improved Safety in the Arctic through Digitalization
Nathaniel John Edwin, Live Fornes and Knut Øien


Optimal Scheduling of Tests of Safety Systems, Considering Test-Induced Degradation
Andreas Hafver, Luiz Fernando Oliveira and Frank Børre Pedersen


Virtual Reality to Improve the Emergency Team Preparation in an Oil Refinery
Paulo Renato F. T. Soares, Isis D. Lins, Márcio C. Moura, Caio S. Maior and Enrique A. L. Droguett


T15 - Cyber Physical Systems

Combined Safety and Security Risk Analysis using the UFoI-E method: A Case Study of an Autonomous Surface Vessel
Nelson H. Carreras Guzman, D. Kwame Minde Kufoalor, Igor Kozine and Mary Ann Lundteigen


Cyber Security of Urban Guided Transport Management according to MILS Principles
Jan Prochazka, Petr Novobilsky and Dana Prochazkova


Early Integration of Dependability Studies in the Design of Cyber-Physical Systems
Marc Bouissou and Thuy Nguyen


Simulation-Based Goal Tree Success Tree for the Risk Analysis of Cyber-Physical Systems
Francesco Di Maio, Roberto Mascherona, Wei Wang and Enrico Zio


T17 - Autonomous Transportation

Comparison of Hazardous Scenarios for Different Ship Autonomy Types using Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis
Hyungju Kim, Odd Ivar Haugen, Børge Rokseth and Mary Ann Lundteigen


Dynamic Safety Analysis of Longitudinal Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles
Antoine Tordeux and Basma Khelfa


Safety of Autonomous Shipping: COLREGS and Interaction between Manned and Unmanned Ships
Thomas Porathe


State of the art of unmanned aircraft transport systems in industry related to risks, vulnerabilities and improvement of safety
S.O. Johnsen and T.E. Evjemo


Systematic in-Depth Structural Considerations for Safety / Security Issues of Autonomous Vehicles
Günter Becker, Alexios Camarinopoulos, Ulrich Hussels, Aikatherina Papasilika, Tanja Schenke, Matthias Kern, Bo Liu, Sven Nitzsche, Victor Pazmino Betancourt, Maria Pieper and Daniel Vonderau


T18 - Supply Chains

A Retailer Dominated Reverse Logistics Network Design for Products Remanufacturing with Dual Channel under Uncertainty
Min Huang, Zhou Huang, Huosheng Li and Tielin Shi


Agent-based Modeling for Energy Supply Chain Resilience Analysis
Shiyu Chen, Michele Compare and Enrico Zio


Influence of Selected Factors on the Correct Functioning of the Liquid Fuels Supply Chain - Case Study
Jacek Ryczyński


Issues on Supply Chain Reliability Measurement – Review and a Case Study
Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska and Maciej Chlebus


T20 - Agriculture and Aquaculture Systems

Analysis of a Model of the Network of Entities Comprising Horse Industry
Marta Wincewicz-Bosy


T21 - Socio-Technical-Economic Systems

Accidents in Seaports: An Analysis from the Perspective of System Dynamics
Danilo Taverna Martins Pereira de Abreu, Maria Valentina Clavijo Mesa, Joaquim Rocha dos Santos and Marcelo Ramos Martins


Oil Well Life Cycle – A Perspective from System Thinking
Joaquim Rocha dos Santos, Danilo Taverna Martins Pereira de Abreu, Carlos Henrique Bittencourt de Morais, Danilo Colombro and Marcelo Ramos Martins


Variability and Resilience in Industrial Symbiosis for Energy Exchange
J.P. Johansen and T.K. Haavik


T22 - Insurance, Banking and Finance

Alliance Importance and Security Continuity of Funding European Budget
Olga Burianova and Jiri F. Urbanek


Assessment of Residual Lifetime Based on the Gompertz–Makeham Law and Its Application to Insurance
Bushinskaya A.V. and Timashev S.A.


Dynamic Model of the Finance Flows Secure Continuity into European Value Added Tax Environments
Olga Burianova and Jiri F. Urbanek


T23 - Health Service Industry

Ant Colony Optimisation for Community Pharmacy Dispensing Process Based on In-field Observations
M. Naybour, R. Remenyte-Prescott and M. Boyd


Critical Barriers to Safety Assurance and Regulation of Autonomous Medical Systems
Mark Sujan, Dominic Furniss, David Embrey, Matthew Elliott, David Nelson, Sean White, Ibrahim Habli and Nick Reynolds



A Reliability-based Design and Optimization Procedure for Offshore Monopile Foundations
Patrick Arnold, Fabian Kirsch and Gianluca Zorzi


A Simple Approach to Vibrational Reliability of Geotechnical Systems
Mikhail Kholmyansky


An Efficient Procedure for 3-d Random Bearing Capacity Evaluation
Marcin Chwała


Characterization of Scale of Fluctuation and Sample Path Smoothness
Jianye Ching and Kok-Kwang Phoon


Probabilistic Analysis of a Diaphragm Wall in Spatially Variable Soil
Marek Kawa, Wojciech Puła and Andrzej Truty


Probabilistic Estimation of Linear and Volumetric Strain Thresholds for Italian Clays
Marco Uzielli, Marco Zei, Johann Facciorusso and Claudia Madiai


Variation of CPTu Data in Finnish Soft Soils
Mika Knuuti and Tim Länsivaara